Exporting and Importing

How has the international trade relationship between Ukraine and Russia changed in the last 20 years? How have their trade relationships changed with other trade partners? (first 3 videos on slide 50-51) What has caused the decline of mutual trade partner status between Ukraine and Russia?

Trade between Russia and Ukraine has decreased drastically since 2012. At that time, Ukraine was exporting $19.6B to Russia. This figure has grown substantially since 2001. Russia reduced its imports from Ukraine to $3.6B in five years in 2017. By 2019, China surpassed Russia as the largest importer of Ukrainian goods/services at a mere $3.4B. And in 2021, Russia was the 4th largest importer of Ukrainian goods/services at $4.1B (China grew to $9.9B). As a fun caveat, China became the largest importer of Russian goods/services at $66.8B in 2021. Ukraine exports to most of the same nations as in 2001 - Turkey and Italy. China and Poland grew their imports for Ukraine the most. Russia has had a strong exporting relationship with Germany and the Netherlands since 2001.

Political conflict is the reason for the decline in trade between Russia and Ukraine.

(NOTE: I find this fun to write about as I am using Grammarly, which is a software product from imported from Ukrainian)

Can we speculate that the political conflict between Russia and Ukraine caused the decrease in their trade, or vice versa? Is it safe to speculate the export bans and trade wars between China and the U.S. could easily escalate to military conflicts, based on the example of Russia and Ukraine?

It is safe to speculate that political turmoil is the root cause of the decreased trade between Russia and Ukraine. Putin has focused on Ukraine for decades and has played the long game in attempting to cripple the nation. In doing so, he likely hypothesized that his agenda would be more successful after reducing trade with Ukraine.

I do not think it is fair to equate Putin’s attempts to erase a nation, to the trade war between China and the U.S. There is a shared, albeit different, culture between Ukraine and Russia. Putin feels entitled to that culture and believes it is not independent of Russia. Putin had used trade restrictions in attempts to cripple Ukraine and pursue his own righteousness. He is a person with power that is trying to get his way using trade. The U.S. and China are simply a part of the trade war because they each want to see their nations prosper economically. This is rooted in business, not culture (and religion). Things would have to escalate significantly between China and the U.S. for there to be a military concern over these politics.