Social Environments
Has the declining fertility rate been a unique phenomenon observed only in developed countries? Or has it been a worldwide phenomenon noticed in various countries, including emerging markets and developing countries?
It should be noted that estimates shared by the United Nations differ drastically from demographers worldwide. The UN believes that our global population will continue to increase in time, whereas demographers estimate that we will peak around 2064, hitting 9.7 billion. A fertility rate of 2.1 is needed to maintain a steady population. While we see much (if not all) of the developed countries with rates below 2.1, many emerging markets and developing nations exceed this rate and add to the global population. However, their birth rates, too, are declining. This observation of the declining birth rate, albeit high, among emerging markets and developing nations is what demographers are factoring into their estimates. The UN only looks at historical data to make predictions, and they do not use a future-thinking approach within their estimations. This most likely leads to a confused public perception of the global population.
What reasons have been attributed to the declining fertility rates across different countries? Is there any common cause? What's your personal opinion on the cause of declining fertility rates?
An overarching reason provided for declining fertility rates across the globe is urbanization. What generally happens with urbanization universally?
Children tend to be perceived as a liability and not an asset. They are more expensive in a city than in a rural community.
Women have access to education, media, and other women. An enhanced interest exists in ambitions outside of the home.
The power of religion declines. A common theme across most religions focuses on women staying at home while men "provide." If you aren't religious, you aren't bound by this ideology.
Peers in an urbanized environment typically do not pressure you to have kids and start a family as frequently as relatives will in more rural communities.
Everything shared is a variable in the equation. The most critical variable, in my opinion, is that it is too expensive to have a family in the 21st century. This is significantly more prevalent today as the wealth inequilty gap increases. For those couples who choose to have a family, choose to have only one child. They pour all of their resources into one child, so they have the best chance to succeed in life. If they had a second child, they wouldn't be able to optimize their resources. And if every couple only had one child, that would leave the global fertility rate at 1.0, not even close to 2.1, the rate needed to simply maintain the current population.